Times of discontent in the region
While Tunisia, Egypt and Libya struggle on democracy path, region will be under dangerous threat with ongoing Syrian, Yemen unrest and changing dynamics vis-à-vis Iran's controversial policies
By Layelle Saad, GCC/Middle East Editor
Published: 00:00 December 31, 2011
Dubai: Although the upcoming year can hardly challenge 2011's unprecedented Arab Spring movement, which unseated some of the regions most infamous dictators, we can be sure that it will be a critical year full of challenges.
As emerging democracies in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya struggle to pick up the pieces of 2011 and form accountable governments, the people will not be idle observers.
Already we see clashes between Egyptians and the military seen as protective of former president Hosni Mubarak's regime and we can be sure to see more of such instability in 2012.
Islamists who came to power in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco will face many litmus tests as they have to be accountable to their constituents without alienating secularists and the West.
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Also, the Egyptian Peace Treaty with Israel might come up for debate in Egypt, which views Israel as a natural enemy.
Dangerous instability
The outcome in Syria remains the most uncertain. After nine months of protests and the death of at least 5,000 people, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad does not seem to be giving up power soon. "Al Assad is finished historically, but he can last well into 2012," said Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi, a UAE commentator on Arab affairs.
With the ongoing unrest in Syria, the region is under threat of dangerous instability, especially in its neighbouring countries of Lebanon and Iraq.
Iraq, meanwhile, has its own set of problems in the coming year such as growing sectarianism, political corruption and security concerns following the withdrawal of US troops this month.
Several provinces have already threatened to declare autonomy from Baghdad. Also, it is unclear what Iran will do if it loses its only Arab ally, if Al Assad is ousted.Already Iran seems to be feeling the pinch of a crippling set of economic sanctions placed by the West while the GCC has formally announced it will establish a Gulf Union to counter "foreign threats" with reference to Iran.
We will see in 2012 how Iran restructures its regional policies and what becomes of its proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas. We will also see how the West will deal with the changing dynamics of the region.
Power transfer
Will they actively support democracy in the region and what if they are unhappy with the results? In Yemen, a power transfer deal that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed did not quell the protests, with activists still camping in the squares, calling for his prosecution. While some observers remain optimistic about the future following the Arab uprisings, Lebanese columnist Mohammad Al Sammak warned that people who have revolted once can do it again, if their goals are not achieved.
"Through such transition, it is normal to go through difficult and complicated times," he said. "Yet, it is important that it does not become a new disappointment, because if that happens, it would set the stage for a new set of movements seeking change."
— With inputs from DPA